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Demographic projections are important for planning, development, and policy decisions across many industries. Governments rely heavily on these forecasts to support planning, development, and policy decisions related to a wide range of sectors such as healthcare, education, energy, water, and aged care. Despite significant advancements in forecasting methods over the last two decades, there are often substantial gaps between academic research and the tools available to government practitioners. This seminar will focus on the evaluation of demographic projection methods, with an emphasis on the needs of practitioners.

We will examine diverse forecasting methods, emphasising the importance of accurate and reliable projections. Topics will include the needs of practitioners, sources of uncertainty, the consequences of inaccurate forecasts, the limitations of forecasting, and research translation.

The seminar will also explore the challenges and opportunities presented by new machine learning methods for population forecasting. We will consider how these advanced methods can be integrated with traditional demographic models to improve forecast accuracy. This discussion will focus on the practical needs of those creating and using such forecasts for policy and development purposes, emphasising the importance of explainable and user-friendly models.

Bio | Dr. Irina Grossman is a research fellow with the Demography and Ageing Unit at the Melbourne School of Population and Global Health. With a background in electrical and computer systems engineering and neuroscience, her work focuses on the development and evaluation of demographic forecast models, with an emphasis on research translation. Dr. Grossman is keen to advance and support cross-disciplinary initiatives at the intersection of demography, health sciences, and data science. Her interests include improving the accuracy of demographic forecasts, communicating forecast uncertainty, and bridging the gap between academic research and practical applications.

To honour the immense contribution Professor Michael Sherris has made to research, teaching and engagement, the School of Risk and Actuarial Studies hosted an event to celebrate his distinguished career and the significant impact of his work. Speakers at this event included Professor Frederik Anseel (Interim Dean at UNSW Business School), David Whittle (2024 Actuaries Institute President), Professor John Piggott (CEPAR Director), alongside colleagues, as well as former students and postdocs mentored by Professor Sherris.

About Professor Sherris:

Professor Michael Sherris is an Emeritus Professor in the School of Risk and Actuarial Studies and a Chief Investigator and Director of Industry Engagement ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR). He was Head of Actuarial Studies at UNSW until 2010, having been appointed to UNSW in 1998 to establish the Actuarial Studies program. Before joining UNSW, he was an Associate Professor in Actuarial Studies at Macquarie University. He is a Fellow of the Institute of Actuaries of Australia, the Institute of Actuaries (UK) and the Society of Actuaries (North America). Prior to becoming an academic, he worked in the banking and finance industry for several major banks and a life insurance company. He has been an active member of the Australian actuarial profession, having served on the Council of the Institute of Actuaries of Australia. Professor Sherris's contributions to actuarial education and research have been recognised with numerous awards and honours, including the 2007 Australian Actuary of the Year award in recognition of his contributions to actuarial research and education both within Australia and internationally.

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Australia is a world leader in policy design and practice around the accumulation of retirement savings but relatively little attention has been paid to the retirement phase.

Under the recently introduced retirement income covenant, superannuation trustees have an obligation to implement a retirement income strategy to help members maximise retirement income, manage risks to the sustainability and stability of that income, and maintain flexible access to capital. However, progress has been slow.

To contribute to the ongoing debate,��UNSW’s Innovations in Risk, Insurance and Superannuation (IRIS) Knowledge Hub,����and the����hosted an event to discuss solutions and strategies to enhance policy design and practice in the retirement phase of superannuation.

Our keynote����(IFEBP Professor of Insurance/Risk Mgmt and Business Economics/Policy, The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania) is one of the world’s foremost pension economists and presented on��Understanding and Managing Longevity Risk in Retirement.��This was followed by a panel discussion featuring thought leaders in superannuation who�� considered��How to Improve the Retirement Phase of Superannuation.��Our panellists included��Hazel Bateman��(School of Risk & Actuarial Studies, UNSW Business School; IRIS Research Hub; CEPAR),����(Executive Director, The Conexus Institute),����(Senior Partner, Mercer) and����(Chief Marketing and Growth Officer, UniSuper). The program concluded with a Research Workshop featuring presentations by academics and representatives from the superannuation and financial services industry.