The military landscape聽in a rapidly changing world
The Future Operations Research Group seeks to understand and analyse the operational environment, and the threats, risks and opportunities that military forces will face, in the 2030-2050 timeframe. Urbanisation, climate change, rapid advances in technology, emerging flashpoints, unconventional and hybrid forms of warfare, and changes in the economic and geo-strategic 聽setting for military operations all form part of the analysis. The group aggregates available information from the widest possible variety of sources, develops a series of testable, integrated projections using recognised futures methodologies and datasets, and then updates and validates projections through continuous monitoring of the environment. The group draws on the multi-disciplinary expertise of a core research team at the school of Humanities and Social Sciences, as well as the broader research capabilities of the University of New South Wales, and external partners.
The Future Operations Research Group is led by聽听补苍诲听.
Associated schools, institutes & centres
Research themes
Future Urban Warfare
On聽a rapidly urbanising planet聽conflict increasingly takes place in and around cities.听Smart-city systems, enhanced connectivity and new military and non-military technologies are already rendering traditional approaches to urban conflict obsolete. This research theme examines the urban warfare of 2030 to 2050, with a focus on future joint combat operations (across the domains of land, sea, air, space, the electro-magnetic spectrum聽and cyberspace) in a crowded, cluttered, highly connected聽and extremely complex urban battlespace.听聽
The聽Autonomous Urban Futures Project聽is a key project within this theme.听Deane-Peter Baker, David Kilcullen, Charles Knight, John Spencer and Katja Theodorakis combine historical analysis, modelling, simulation, live/virtual/constructive (LVC) experimentation听补苍诲听ethico-legal analysis to develop recommendations for future ADF urban operations. These recommendations聽take advantage of autonomous weapons systems and autonomous logistics systems,聽while聽considering聽heir significant operational, legal and ethical challenges.听
Future Unconventional Warfare
After decades of United States聽and allied dominance of聽鈥榗onventional鈥櫬燾onflict,聽adversaries are seeking means to side-step western dominance. This research theme explores patterns in the evolution of special operations, hybrid and proxy war, economic and political warfare聽and other non-conventional means and methods of conflict, with a focus on the unconventional warfare of 2030鈥2050.听聽
Emerging Flashpoints
Rapid warming in polar regions has already triggered a dramatic increase in military competition in the Arctic. Other emerging flashpoints鈥攊ncluding聽those driven by climate-induced migration, conflicts over water, energy and other scarce resources, great-power realignments and a shifting global economic balance鈥攎ean conflict in 2030鈥2050 may occur in new places, over new issues, among new actors. This research theme seeks to develop a set of testable indicators and warnings for emerging flashpoints and to continuously monitor and update these to build a picture of where and how such conflicts may occur.听
In聽the form of political warfare, manipulation of media (including social media) and the use of deception, disinformation and 鈥渇ake news鈥澛爃as become an increasingly important aspect of great-power military competition. It affects operations below the threshold of war,聽driving the pre-conflict shaping operations in which military actors engage. This research theme seeks to map the disinformation and political warfare activities of great powers in key contested regions of the world, understand the impact of emerging information warfare capabilities on future conflict and develop research of relevance to the ADF and allied militaries.听聽
Emerging Technologies
Dominance聽of a handful of conventional military technologies played a key role in western primacy since the end of the Cold War. But emerging technologies are changing the face of war,聽including聽hypersonic missiles, nuclear power, renewable energy, human performance enhancement,聽bio-engineering, nanotechnologies, advanced materials and manufacturing methods and novel chemical and biological weapons technologies. This research theme attempts to explore, evaluate and model the impact of emerging technologies on future conflict in the 2030 to 2050 timeframe.听
The Technology Cold War is a key project within this research theme, in which聽Clinton Fernandes聽explores聽the domestic and international aspects of the emerging technology contest between China and the US鈥攚ith Australia caught in the middle. Described as Cold War 2.0, he examines how the contest plays out across the global semiconductor industry, 5G networks, artificial intelligence, robotics, gene editing, data flows, autonomous vehicles and rare earth minerals.听He previously聽published a book relating to the issue,聽.听
Publications
- 聽鈥 Nate Roseblatt and David Kilcullen聽
- 聽鈥 Clinton Fernandes聽
- 聽鈥 Clinton Fernandes聽
- 聽鈥撀燚avid Kilcullen聽
- 聽鈥撀燚avid Kilcullen
UNSW Canberra Autonomous Weapons in Urban Warfare Research Project
Prof David Kilcullen and A/Prof Deane-Peter Baker discuss this Defence-funded project